Has WHO told the truth about the swine flu virus?

Wednesday, 18 November 2009 20:40

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WHO has said it has found no significant changes to the swine flu virus after examining samples from the Ukraine, that is to say, WHO claims the swine virus continues to be mild.

However, emails are coming in which disagree with WHO and say the virus has become more virulent:

“One of the two small mutations theorized to be in the Ukraine samples has been confirmed.

D225G a receptor binding domain change makes the swine flu much more virulent in the lungs.

This mutation brings the H1N1 virus closer to the 1918 virus as it was in the third and deadliest wave.

Two samples from Brazil also contained this and one other small mutation.

This mutation has no effect on transmission of the virus and will not impact the function of the vaccines against the virus. It does mean that more of the infected will die from the various lung symptoms described so many times in this thread,” says one email.

Live feed of underlying pandemic map data here
Commentary

Receptor Binding Domain Change D225G Confirmed in Ukraine
Recombinomics Commentary 14:41
November 18, 2009

Mill Hill has released a series of sequences from patients in Ukraine. Four of the samples had the receptor binding domain change D225G. Three samples were from lung, one from a throat swab.

Samples with D255G are listed below

A/Lviv/N6/2009

A/Lviv/N2/2009

A/Ternopil/N11/2009

A/Ternopil/N10/2009

All HA samples also had a Ukraine specific marker that had been previously found in swine.

More detailed analysis to follow.

Live feed of underlying pandemic map data here
Commentary

RBD D225G in China and Australia Raise Ukraine Concerns
Recombinomics Commentary 14:41
November 18, 2009

The recent outbreak in Ukraine has raised concern that receptor binding domain changes are responsible. Although WHO has issued a new Ukraine situation update and has addressed preliminary changes in a news conference, they have not rule out receptor binding domain changes, and the recent announcement of investigations by two WHO Regional Centers (NIMR in Mill Hill, UK and CDC in Atlanta GA) suggests single nucleotide changes are under investigation.

One such change is the receptor binding domain polymorphism D225G which is present on recently released sequences from China and Australia. The HA sequence from China, A/Zheijiang/DTID-ZJU03/2009, is virtually identical to two earlier sequences from Yiwu (A/Zhejiang/DTID-ZJU02/2009 and A/Zhejiang-Yiwu/11/2009) and all were collected in September and appear to be from the same patient or contacts. The patient eventually recovered, but was seriously ill and hospitalized for several weeks. However, the three sequences from Yiwu match (see list here) sequences from an isolate, A/Hangzhou/1/2009, that is in another location in Zheijiang (see map), indicating D225G was appended onto the Hangzhou genetic background via recombination.

A sequence released Monday at GISAID by the WHO regional center in Australia, A/Sydney/2503/2009, also has D225G, but on a different genetic backbone. The 5' end of the gene matches isolates from Singapore and Japan (see list), which do not have D225G. Thus, D225G is appended onto this background via recombination, but the background in Australia is distinct from the background in China.

Similarly, the two genetic backbones described above are distinct for two isolates in Sao Paulo, which were from fatal cases. The lung isolates signal the jumping of D225G from one genetic backbone to another. This concurrent acquisition has been described in H5N1, as well as the genetic hitchhiking of H274Y in seasonal H1N1.

This jumping of the same polymorphisms form one background to another signals major changes, especially when the polymorphism "in play" is a receptor binding domain change, which is cause for concern.

The recent activity in Ukraine raises concerns that similar changes are in play there, and the failure of WHO to release the sequences or comment on receptor binding domain changes significantly increases these concerns.